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🔥 '''Wildfire risk score''' is a numerical rating assigned to a specific property or geographic area that quantifies its exposure to wildfire damage, used by [[Definition:Insurance carrier | insurers]], [[Definition:Underwriting | underwriters]], and [[Definition:Catastrophe modeling | catastrophe modelers]] to inform pricing, risk selection, and portfolio management decisions in [[Definition:Property insurance | property insurance]]. Unlike simple proximity-to-wildlands measures, modern wildfire risk scores integrate multiple variables — vegetation density, topography, historical fire frequency, local climate patterns, building construction type, defensible space, and access to firefighting resources — into a composite metric. These scores have become critical tools as wildfire losses have escalated dramatically in markets such as California, Australia, southern Europe, and parts of Canada.

🛰️ Generating a wildfire risk score typically involves layering geospatial data, satellite imagery, and machine learning models to assess both the likelihood of fire reaching a given property and the probable severity of damage if it does. Vendors such as CoreLogic, Verisk, and Zesty.ai produce commercially available scoring products that insurers embed directly into their [[Definition:Rating algorithm | rating algorithms]] and [[Definition:Underwriting guidelines | underwriting guidelines]]. Some scores operate on a simple 1-to-10 or 1-to-100 scale, while others provide granular sub-scores for ignition probability, flame length exposure, and ember transport risk. Insurers use these outputs at multiple stages: during initial [[Definition:Policy | policy]] quoting to determine whether to offer coverage and at what [[Definition:Premium | premium]], during [[Definition:Renewal | renewal]] to reassess risk as conditions change, and at the portfolio level to manage [[Definition:Aggregation risk | aggregation]] and inform [[Definition:Reinsurance | reinsurance]] purchasing. Regulatory scrutiny has intensified around how these scores are constructed, particularly in the United States where state [[Definition:Department of insurance | departments of insurance]] in fire-prone states have questioned whether proprietary models unfairly restrict coverage availability.

📊 The growing reliance on wildfire risk scores reflects a broader shift in the insurance industry toward granular, data-driven [[Definition:Risk assessment | risk assessment]] in the face of [[Definition:Climate risk | climate change]]. As traditional actuarial methods based on historical loss experience struggle to keep pace with rapidly evolving fire regimes, forward-looking scoring models offer a more dynamic alternative. However, their adoption raises important questions about insurance availability and affordability — properties receiving high wildfire scores may face coverage restrictions, non-renewal, or prohibitively expensive premiums, pushing consumers toward [[Definition:Residual market | residual market]] mechanisms like California's FAIR Plan. Balancing actuarial precision with regulatory mandates for broad market access remains one of the most contentious challenges in wildfire-exposed insurance markets, making the methodology and transparency of these scores a focal point for regulators, consumer advocates, and the industry alike.

'''Related concepts:'''
{{Div col|colwidth=20em}}
* [[Definition:Catastrophe modeling]]
* [[Definition:Property insurance]]
* [[Definition:Climate risk]]
* [[Definition:Underwriting guidelines]]
* [[Definition:Residual market]]
* [[Definition:Geospatial analytics]]
{{Div col end}}

Definition:Wildfire risk score - Revision history

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