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📉 '''Decrement table''' is an actuarial tool used in insurance to model the probability of specific events — such as death, disability, policy lapse, or retirement — reducing a defined population over time. In [[Definition:Life insurance | life insurance]] and [[Definition:Pension insurance | pension]] work, these tables are foundational, providing the statistical scaffolding for [[Definition:Pricing | pricing]], [[Definition:Reserving | reserving]], and [[Definition:Valuation | valuation]]. A single-decrement table tracks one cause of exit (e.g., mortality alone), while a multiple-decrement table captures several competing causes simultaneously — for example, death, disability, and voluntary [[Definition:Policy lapse | lapse]] all acting on the same insured population.

⚙️ Construction of a decrement table begins with collecting experience data — historical observations of how many individuals in a cohort experienced each type of exit at each age or duration. [[Definition:Actuary | Actuaries]] then graduate and smooth the raw rates, apply trend adjustments, and may blend company-specific experience with industry-wide tables published by bodies such as the [[Definition:Society of Actuaries (SOA) | Society of Actuaries]] in the United States, the Continuous Mortality Investigation in the UK, or the Institute of Actuaries of Japan. In a multiple-decrement framework, the interdependence of competing exits must be handled carefully: removing one cause of exit (say, improving mortality) changes the probability that an individual will exit by another route (say, lapse), a subtlety that requires conversion between dependent and independent rates. Modern [[Definition:Actuarial modeling | actuarial modeling]] platforms embed decrement tables into stochastic projection engines, allowing insurers to simulate thousands of scenarios for [[Definition:Capital modeling | capital]] and [[Definition:Asset-liability management (ALM) | asset-liability management]] purposes.

🧮 Getting decrement assumptions right has outsized financial consequences. In [[Definition:Life insurance | life insurance]], an overly optimistic mortality table can lead to underpriced [[Definition:Annuity | annuity]] products that create long-term losses as policyholders live longer than expected — a risk that has materialized dramatically for several European and Japanese insurers facing aging populations. Conversely, overestimating lapse rates on profitable in-force business can cause an insurer to understate its [[Definition:Loss reserves | liabilities]] and overstate available [[Definition:Regulatory capital | capital]]. Regulatory regimes worldwide mandate that insurers use credible, well-documented decrement assumptions: [[Definition:Solvency II | Solvency II]] requires best-estimate assumptions with explicit risk margins, while US statutory valuation relies on prescribed tables such as the Commissioners Standard Ordinary table, supplemented by company experience studies. The discipline of building and validating decrement tables remains one of the core competencies distinguishing insurance [[Definition:Actuarial science | actuarial practice]] from broader data science.

'''Related concepts:'''
{{Div col|colwidth=20em}}
* [[Definition:Mortality table]]
* [[Definition:Actuarial science]]
* [[Definition:Policy lapse]]
* [[Definition:Life insurance]]
* [[Definition:Reserving]]
* [[Definition:Experience study]]
{{Div col end}}

Definition:Decrement table - Revision history

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